Written by: Lisa Davies

September 2024 MARKET UPDATE

Victoria real estate market current conditions benefit buyers and sellers

As anticipated, October is showing a substantial increase in year-over-year sales, jumping nearly 40% compared to last year. This uptick is driven by a combination of lower mortgage rates and a particularly quiet market last fall. Here’s a breakdown of October’s market performance across property types and how it compares to historical norms:

Condos

Last October saw relatively stable condo activity, with sales 17% below the 20-year average—not record lows by any means. Condo sales this October have risen a modest 12% from last year, suggesting that we’re likely to end the month near the long-term average for this segment. Notably, as condos form an increasingly larger share of dwellings, we can expect gradual sales growth in this category over time.

Detached Homes

Detached home sales took a significant dip last October, marking the second-lowest month in 20 years (only surpassed by the financial crisis). This October, though, we’re seeing a meaningful recovery with sales up by 40% in the first two weeks alone. If this pace continues, we should align closer with long-term averages, a positive sign for the detached market.

Townhouses

October 2023 was also a weaker-than-average month for townhouse sales, with activity only slightly above the lows of 2008 and 2012. This October, townhouse sales have risen sharply, reaching 28 sales in the first two weeks compared to just 10 during the same period last year. While these numbers may be influenced by smaller sample sizes, the trend shows notable improvement.

Market Overview

Overall, sales across all property types are up 54% year-over-year, but it’s worth noting that the timing of Truth & Reconciliation Day last October does affect the comparison slightly. Here’s an overview of the key numbers we’re tracking: With new listings up 1% year-over-year, it’s evident that some of the increased inventory from September is being absorbed. Typically, the fall market remains active until the end of October before slowing down into the winter months. For family-sized homes under a million, inventory is still higher than in previous years. However, with a 19% year-over-year inventory increase, this gap from last year remains manageable.

Looking Ahead

As we enter November, the October sales boost could generate some positive local headlines—think “Real Estate Market Rebounds!” This might boost buyer sentiment, possibly drawing more interest from those who feel the market is turning. Sellers who stepped back earlier in the year might also be encouraged by this uptick to relist, which could keep activity strong heading into 2025. While sales volume looks promising, pricing trends will depend largely on inventory shifts.

In sum, October’s numbers reflect a tightening market, though new listings remain a variable. The early fall surge could give us some good momentum as we transition into the new year! If you have more questions or would like to connect about real estate related topics please email, write or call me anytime!

‘Your Dreams, My Mission’

Lisa Davies | REALTOR®

From Victoria Real Estate Board:

A total of 571 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this September, 15.8 per cent more than the 493 properties sold in September 2023 and a 4.8 per cent increase from August 2024. Sales of condominiums were up 21.9 per cent from September 2023 with 189 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased by 19.3 per cent from September 2023 with 272 sold.

“The real estate market in Victoria right now is much more stable and more predictable than it has been in recent years,” said 2024 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone. “We have seen a few solid months of near-balance in the market, which means it’s neither a seller’s nor a buyer’s market and positives exist for both sides of a transaction. With downward trending interest rates and stable pricing combined with more inventory on the market, our current conditions are the most comfortable for consumers to navigate that I’ve seen in a few years.”

There were 3,361 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of September 2024, an increase of 5.3 per cent compared to the previous month of August and a 24.5 per cent increase from the 2,699 active listings for sale at the end of September 2023.

“In times of more balanced markets,” adds Chair Lidstone. “There is less pressure on pricing and more opportunity to take time to make big decisions on real estate. However, there are still situations where you can encounter competition. When the house, price and location are all highly desirable for buyers, we can see situations where there are competing offers. As always if you are thinking about making a move, connecting with a local REALTOR® to start building your strategy is advisable.”

The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in September 2023 was $1,316,100. The benchmark value for the same home in September 2024 decreased by 2.8 per cent to $1,279,700, down from August’s value of $1,287,400. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in September 2023 was $583,400 while the benchmark value for the same condominium in September 2024 decreased by 5.1 per cent to $553,400, down from the August value of $559,200.

Full statistical package available here. 


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MLS® property information is provided under copyright© by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board and Victoria Real Estate Board. The information is from sources deemed reliable, but should not be relied upon without independent verification.