The Victoria real estate market has seen a dynamic shift in October, exceeding expectations and offering new insights for buyers and sellers. Here’s a breakdown of the latest trends and what they mean for you.
Sales Surge and Market Dynamics
October saw 654 properties sold in the Victoria area—a 61% increase compared to last year, far surpassing the anticipated 30-50% increase. Detached home sales have surged back to levels seen before interest rates began to rise, while condo sales have remained steady but below pre-rate hike activity. For detached homes, this signals a notable tightening, with sales now hovering around average historical levels.
Interestingly, the Real Estate Board took a cautious approach in their reporting, acknowledging that last October’s sales were unusually low. This perspective helps put the recent spike in sales into context, indicating a return to balanced market levels rather than an extreme rally.
Inventory Levels and Seasonal Adjustments
With record new listings in September and October, inventory has managed to stay relatively stable even with increased sales activity. However, inventory for detached homes specifically has been tightening, suggesting a shift that could favor sellers if the trend continues.
Price Stability Across Property Types
Price trends have been relatively stable, with detached homes selling close to their assessed value, signaling little change over the past year and a half. Condo prices, on the other hand, saw a slight dip, now sitting around 4% below assessed values, indicating some affordability improvement. Overall, townhouse prices have remained largely unchanged.
Detached vs. Condo Markets: A Growing Divide
While both detached homes and condos have been resilient despite regulatory changes, the markets diverged notably this October. Detached homes experienced a tightening trend, while condos stayed relatively unchanged. This suggests that the detached market may soon lean more strongly toward a seller’s advantage, while condos could remain steady, offering more time and flexibility for buyers.
Looking Ahead
As we move toward the winter lull, detached properties appear poised for further potential gains if activity stays high. For condos, current affordability levels and regulatory changes may keep prices steady in the near term. While monthly fluctuations are natural, this new trend of increasing divergence between property types may shape the market in the coming months.
If you’re considering a move or want to discuss how these trends could impact your plans, feel free to reach out. I’m here to help you navigate these shifts with insight and a plan that works for you.
Warm regards,
Lisa Davies
Your Trusted Victoria Realtor
From Victoria Real Estate Board:
Victoria market exceeds expectations but remains balanced
A total of 654 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this October, 60.7 per cent more than the 407 properties sold in October 2023 and a 14.5 per cent increase from September 2024. Sales of condominiums were up 32.6 per cent from October 2023 with 187 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased by 76.2 per cent from October 2023 with 340 sold.
“Sales did increase notably over last year, but it’s important to include some context,” said 2024 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair-Elect Dirk VanderWal. “October 2023 saw the fewest sales in that month since 2008, which distorts a year-over-year comparison; in fact, last month’s sales count was almost exactly on the ten-year average for the month. With that context, although we’ve certainly seen a notable increase in sales month over month, this does signal a return to a more average market for this time of year. The number of homes available on the market has remained relatively consistent, which has also created the benefit of a more balanced market for buyers and sellers, even with the increase in sales numbers.”
There were 3,161 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of October 2024, a decrease of 6 per cent compared to the previous month of September and a 14.7 per cent increase from the 2,756 active listings for sale at the end of October 2023.
“I think it’s safe to say that many consumers have been watching the Bank of Canada rate announcements, and that could be influencing their decision making,” adds Chair-Elect VanderWal. “Recent rate drops likely encouraged a few more buyers and sellers to enter the market, and we may see that trend continue in November, the month which traditionally begins our market's winter lull. Even though sales were higher last month, we are still experiencing a comfortable environment for buyers and sellers to negotiate. There are fewer multiple offers and more time for the decision-making process. It is hard to predict what the winter market will bring, so it’s a great idea to consult with your favourite local REALTOR® to discuss the current market.”
The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in October 2023 was $1,310,100. The benchmark value for the same home in October 2024 decreased by 0.8 per cent to $1,300,200, up from September’s value of $1,279,700. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in October 2023 was $578,800 while the benchmark value for the same condominium in October 2024 decreased by 5.4 per cent to $547,800, down from the September value of $553,400.
Full statistical package available here.
