What’s really happening in Victoria’s real estate market? Whether you’re a homeowner, a potential buyer, or just curious, here’s a deep dive into the numbers, trends, and what they mean for you.
As we wrap up 2024, it’s clear the Victoria real estate market is finding its rhythm again. After two relatively quiet years, activity started picking up in September, surged in October, and maintained solid momentum through November. Let’s break it down.
Sales Are Up Across the Board
November saw 551 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region—a 39.8% increase from last November. Condos led the charge with a 55% increase in sales, while single-family homes followed closely with a 36.3% jump.
This broad-based increase is noteworthy. In October, detached homes were the stars of the show, but November brought strong activity across all residential property types—condos, townhomes, and single-family homes.
Prices: Steady, but with Some Movement
Single-family homes in the Victoria Core saw the MLS® HPI benchmark value rise to $1,302,900, a slight 1% increase year-over-year. Meanwhile, condos have dipped, with the benchmark value now at $544,400, a 4.7% decrease compared to November 2023. This drop in condo prices has helped clear out some of the older, stale listings, boosting activity in that segment. For single-family homes, the market remains relatively balanced, with properties selling around their assessed values.
Inventory: A Balancing Act
Inventory is tightening but remains manageable. November ended with 2,836 active listings, a 10.3% decline from October but still a 7.3% increase from last year.
Here’s the challenge: new listings in November were 7% lower than the same time last year, and if this trend continues, we could see inventory drop further heading into 2025. For now, the market remains balanced, but the declining inventory could shift conditions in favor of sellers if demand persists.
What’s Fueling the Market?
Several factors are driving this renewed activity:
Strong Local Economy: Victoria’s unemployment rate remains exceptionally low at just over 3% for prime working-age adults (25–54), compared to much higher rates in Vancouver, Toronto, and across Ontario. A robust labour market is bolstering buyer confidence.
Interest Rates: While uncertainty around rates persists, recent declines in bond yields have sparked optimism among buyers. Many are motivated by projections of falling rates in 2025.
Seasonality and Demand: November’s strong sales activity, combined with a dip in new listings, has eaten into the inventory buffer built over the past two years.
Challenges and Risks Ahead
While the market is trending upward, it’s not without risks:
Policy Uncertainty: Global events, potential tariffs, and domestic economic policies could impact consumer confidence and borrowing costs.
Inventory Pressures: If new listings don’t pick up in early 2025, the current balance could tip, leading to tighter conditions and upward pressure on prices.
Volatile Conditions: The broader economic environment remains uncertain, which could influence market dynamics heading into spring.
What Does This Mean for You?
For Buyers: Now is a great time to act while inventory is still balanced. Lower competition and stable prices make it easier to find the right property without the bidding wars of years past.
For Sellers: The renewed demand and shrinking inventory make this a good time to list your home. Serious buyers are out there, and the market is moving steadily.
Looking Ahead
As we head into 2025, all eyes will be on inventory levels and how the economy evolves. If demand stays strong and listings don’t keep pace, we could see conditions tighten further, especially in the spring market.
Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or just curious about what your home is worth, staying informed is key. Let’s connect to chat about how these market trends impact your goals and opportunities. Here’s to a confident, informed start to 2025!
‘The art of home, thoughtfully delivered’
-Lisa Davies | REALTOR®
From Victoria Real Estate Board:
A total of 551 properties sold in the Victoria Real Estate Board region this November, 39.8 per cent more than the 394 properties sold in November 2023 and a 15.7 per cent decrease from October 2024. Sales of condominiums were up 55 per cent from November 2023 with 186 units sold. Sales of single family homes increased by 36.3 per cent from November 2023 with 263 sold.
“I’ve found that buyers and sellers are feeling optimistic right now,” said 2024 Victoria Real Estate Board Chair Laurie Lidstone. “With the steady decrease we’ve seen in interest rates and the continued balance in the market, consumers are feeling more comfortable and empowered to make the big decisions around home ownership knowing that they have a fairly stable real estate environment to navigate.”
There were 2,836 active listings for sale on the Victoria Real Estate Board Multiple Listing Service® at the end of November 2024, a decrease of 10.3 per cent compared to the previous month of October and a 7.3 per cent increase from the 2,644 active listings for sale at the end of November 2023.
“Though we did see inventory tick below three thousand listings, we are still in much better shape than in recent years in terms of availability of supply,” adds Chair Lidstone. “Seasonality comes into play this time of year, and the closer we get to the new year, the more folks temporarily move their focus from house shopping to the holidays. That said, it’s likely the momentum we saw building in November will carry on in December to some extent. If you’re considering a new home for the holidays, connect with your favourite local REALTOR® to create your plan.”
The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in November 2023 was $1,290,100. The benchmark value for the same home in November 2024 increased by 1 per cent to $1,302,900, up from October’s value of $1,300,200. The MLS® HPI benchmark value for a condominium in the Victoria Core area in November 2023 was $571,300 while the benchmark value for the same condominium in November 2024 decreased by 4.7 per cent to $544,400, down from the October value of $547,800.
Full statistical package available here.
